Winter is fast approaching in Ukraine. Here's what comes next for the conflict

 Until a many weeks ago, it looked as though the conflict in Ukraine would head into the bitter downtime months firmed in place-- with neither side making perceptible progress. 

 That prognostic has changed with the unforeseen and successful Ukrainian descent through utmost of engaged Kharkiv, which has electrified Ukraine's Western backers as much as it has led to recriminations in Moscow. 

 The Russian service must now ask itself what kind of force, and where exactly they're stationed, can recapture the action after Ukraine captured further home in one week than Russian forces had in five months. 

There are important political dynamics involved too. The Kremlin faces tough choices whether to declare a general rallying to reinvigorate its decreasingly ragged units in Ukraine and how to manage a budget deficiency-- indeed though it's sitting on historically high foreign reserves. 

 Far beyond the theater of war, Russia must choose how far to weaponize its influence over Europe's gas force, as governments prepare to spend big to alleviate the goods of exceptionally tight force. 

 Another implicit dilemma the first signs that Chinese support for the Russian irruption, noway whole- hearted, may be waning. 

 A changing battleground 

 Ukraine's stunningcounter-offensive across Kharkiv, combined with further attritional advances in the south, have presented the Kremlin and Russia's important blamed Defense Ministry with a range of bad options. 

 As downtime approaches, they must choose which front to prioritize, and whether to double down on sweats to fulfill Putin's stated ideal the seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russians presently hold about 20 of Ukrainian land, including Crimea and corridor of the south. 

 Taking Donetsk is a high order now for the Russians. Seven months of war have shown the failings in Russian logistics, which will get no easier in wetter, colder rainfall. 

Wounded Ukrainian dogfaces are seen in a vehicle in the freed home of the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Monday, September 12, 2022. 

 In a matter of days, Russia lost one of three axes of attack in Donetsk; no progress has been made on the other two since the end of June. 

 At the same time, Russian defenses in Kherson are under growing pressure despite being corroborated, thanks to Ukraine's success in cutting off resupply across the River Dnipro and in targeting command posts and security depots. 

 The Russian service doesn't have a wealth of fresh units to fit into the conflict. The lately stood- up 3rd Army Corps largely comprises levy hosts signed across the Russian regions. Other legion politic groups have been reconstituted after suffering heavy losses. There are patient reports of discipline fraying among Russian units. The unruly retreat in Kharkiv, with vast quantities of military tackle abandoned, is testament to that-- and to habitual command problems that won't be remedied overnight.